Burma's year of change

The last year in Burma has been one of quick and dramatic change.

The new government surprised even some of its toughest critics, by releasing hundreds of political prisoners, negotiating cease-fire deals with ehtnic rebels and increasing media freedoms.

But a key test of how serious the government is about reform will come at the begnning of April, when Burma holds a series of by-elections.



It's a sight few people thought was possible in Burma just a year ago - pro-democracy leader, Aung San Suu Kyi on the campaign trail, running for a seat in parliament.

And everywhere she goes, she draws thousands of adoring supporters.

"There is a lot to be done," she told supporters in Dawei.

"To build a country that we all want and the get the system of governance that benfits the people, we have to prevail. If we prevail and unite, we can overcome any difficulty."

It's a sign of how quickly Burma is changing, after half a century of military domination.

Aung San Suu Kyi was only released from house arrest at the end of 2010.

Now, says Trevor Wilson from the ANU college of Asia and the Pacific, she can not only travel around the country, but also hold political rallies.

"It seems as if she's been able to move around very freely more so than ever before, that she's been able to speak freely and what she's been saying has been recorded and reported," he said.

"She's not being highly critical of the government - she's not calling for an overthrow of the government or engaging in any subversive activity at all, so to a certain extent she's exercising restraint."

Despite the restraint and freedom to move around, the pro-democracy leader has faced some resistance.

Before a mass meeting in the Irrawaddy delta, local authorities reportedly sprung 'pre-entrance university tests' on students, to keep them away from the rally.

And Ms Suu Kyi cancelled a gathering, when authorities wouldn't let her use a foootball stadium for it.

But on the whole, says Burma analyst Sean Turnell, there's much more freedom for most, than there used to be.

"Only a year ago there was still a lot of tension," he said.

"People who you may want to have talked to were sometimes reluctant to talk. You would sort of have to meet them in a location that didn't draw attention and so on. Now, more or less people are happy to talk and happy to meet up and so on."

Opening up

Associate Professor Turnell, from Australia's Macquarie University, has been to the South East Asian nation four times.

Most recently he visited at the start of February for one of the first major business and academic conferences since the country opened its borders.

"People there were extraordinarily open," he said.

"It's really quite interesting, many Burmese officials are very open in expressing frustration at the moment, optimism certainly at the top level reforms but frustration that the reforms are just not being implemented - that they're being stymied within the bureaucracy."

Associate Professor Turnell says there's little experience in Burma about running a modern democracy - as well, there's still a military mind set, in which people await orders from the top before anything gets done.

And U Soe Thein, the Burmese Industry Minister, says it's still early days.

"A lot of things we have done but many more to do, many more to do in the near future," he said

"So the democratic process is not finished yet. We have a lot of things to reform and to change."

By-elections

The April by-elections will be a key test of the Burmese government's commitment to reform.

Western governments have made it clear that free and fair elections are an important condition for lifting economic sanctions against Burma.

"We are eager to see the by-election in April conducted freely, fairly and consistent with international standards," said US Senator John McCain during a January visit.

The United Nations is pushing strongly for monitors to be allowed in, considering the 2010 election was marred by widespread complaints of cheating.

And the UN's Special Rapporteur for human rights in Burma, Tomas Ojea Quintano, says they were discussed during his most recent visit.

"The electoral commissioner told me that the question of international observers for the by-elections was under consideration," he said.

"He, of course, assured me that these elections would be free and fair. In my opinion, it is also important that these elections might be inclusive, meaning that NLD and other political parties will have the opportunity to participate."

There'll be by-elections in 48 seats, left vacant by MPs who have been elevated to ministerial and other executive positions.

Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy is standing a candidate in all of them.

"Some people ask, what can we do in parliament with 48 candidates?" she said.

"I would say I believe if there is strong commitment, even one person can shake the country."

General poll

Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy will have to wait until the next general election in 2015 for the chance of major political change.

That's because while 48 seats are up for grabs in these by-elections - the Burmese parliament is made up of 664 seats.

"The elections won't result in any change in the overall makeup of parliament," says Trevor Wilson.

"It's still going be overwhelming dominated by the pro-government party, which was set up by the military."

But there are rumours swirling that Aung San Suu Kyi may in fact join the government before the general election.

It's speculation she hasn't ruled out, and she has a strengthening relationship with the President, Thein Sein.

"I think she would be seeking assurances that if she did enter the government that her voice would be heard and that she would have some degree of policy making power," says Associate Professor Sean Turnell.

Aung San Suu Kyi would also step up her push for the release of all political prisoners and peace with ethnic rebel groups.

Lifting sanctions

The West too wants to see progress in those areas before it lifts sanctions.

The European Union is encouraged by what it's seen so far, and has increased aid to Burma.

The European Development Commissioner, Andris Peibalgs, came to Rangoon, with a clear message for President Thein Sein.

"I clearly said 'well, if the process continues, the sanctions will be lifted, as soon as possible'," he said.

"I explained it is 27 countries and we need to convince all 27."

If they can be convinced, Aung San Suu Kyi holds out great hope for the future of her country.

"We are not at the point of a great transformation but we have a rare and extremely, precious opportunity to reach such a point," she said.

"I would like to appeal to all those who wish to promote the interests of Burma to support us in our efforts to take the next crucial step that will enable us to bridge the gap between potential and fulfilment."

It's a dramatic political rebirth for a woman who has spent most of the last two decades behind bars.

Source: Burma's year of change by Kate Arnott| 20 Feb 2012