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"Burmese are coming," he whispered, referring to Myanmar's ruling Burman ethnic group whom the Karen have fought against for autonomy for over six decades. The head of a government army patrol, usually consisting of 50 to 100 soldiers, slowly progressed down the road. The Karens stepped back into the forest and crouched down in the bush. Colonel Yeshua, the unit's 53-year old commander, drew his pistol and nervously puffed away at a cigar.
"They should not patrol any more in my land," he fumed. "If it were only for me I would shoot them."
It is a sentiment he may no longer act upon. Along with his counterparts across the Karen State, Yeshua has been ordered by KNU headquarters to abstain from engaging the Myanmar army. The new rules of engagement are the first step of a landmark ceasefire signed on January 12 between the Myanmar government and a 19-member KNU delegation in Pa-an, the Karen State's capital.
Back on the road, government soldiers spotted the KNU guerrilla ducking in the brush. "Don't shoot and we won't shoot you," a government soldier shouts out. (This writer was hiding in the bush a mere 20 meters from the road but was asked by the KNU not to go ahead "in order not to complicate matters". The following description of events is derived from personal observation, quotes of those involved and a short video made by Karen soldiers.)
A few Karen stepped onto the road to meet the group of about 15 Myanmar soldiers. They were on their way to Ler Mu Plaw, a camp a few hours to the east, to transport a landmine victim they were carrying in a hammock. With long hair, disheveled uniforms and carrying rattan baskets rather than standard army-issued backpacks, some of them looked more like tramps than members of a redoubtable army.
On this day, however, tensions were tempered as both sides lowered their guns and smiled. Then the conversation between the long-time adversaries took a surreal turn. "Do you eat well?" asked a Myanmar government soldier. "We don't eat very well. We have only rice and fish paste, no curry." Both sides then confirmed that they were under orders not to engage in fighting.
"You should go back to your village and start farming again," said another Myanmar soldier to the Karens. "We cannot do that as long as you have not left," replied a KNU insurgent. "You have to leave your camps within a month, after that we will shoot you. Ah ah ... I was just kidding," said the insurgent. Then a smiling Myanmar soldier extended his hand to one of the Karens and vigorously shook it: "Thank you, we have to go now."
This incident, which lasted only a few minutes, would have been unthinkable only a fortnight ago. These battlefield enemies have been fighting for 63 years and in the past such a chance encounter would have inevitably resulted in a firefight.
Still, reports of the symbolic handshake did not sit well with KNU leadership based in the Thai town of Mae Sot on the Myanmar-Thailand border. A day after reports of the incident circulated, a new central order was sent to field officers: "No contact of this kind any more. Only members of the negotiating group are allowed to meet Burmese representatives."
Despite this gesture and a widely shared opinion that the situation in Karen State is more stable than usual, a series of violations of the ceasefire have been reported. In the days preceding the roadside handshake, Myanmar soldiers shot civilians and mortared a Karen village and an internally displaced people (IDPs) community, though none of the incidents resulted in major casualties.
Meanwhile, convoys of trucks, including one recently with over 150 horses, have been observed on local roads transporting a myriad of supplies, including food, cooking oil, gas, weapons and ammunitions, to Myanmar troops. "The Burmese keep resupplying," says one local KNLA commander. "Normally we would attack or disrupt these convoys but we cannot because of the ceasefire. They actually use it to reinforce," he said.
In these mountainous areas, far from the KNU's border-situated headquarters, the recent ceasefire has raised some confusion. Many insurgents and villagers here ask whether it is only a cessation of hostilities or an organized process with modalities and conditions? They also wonder what to do if the Myanmar authorities violate the ceasefire? The confusion, they say, is fuelled by a lack of clear communication from the KNU leadership.
Naw Beh Lar Htoo, a 50-something woman from Htee Go, an IDP village with 40 houses scattered over a large area "so we can better hide from the Burmese", said she had heard nothing about a ceasefire. "The KNU did not tell me, and I don't listen to the radio, but I will only believe it when I will be able to do more farming, when I will get a better life."
The KNU's leadership said it plans to address the communication breakdown. "We are planning to educate the people about the new situation in every district but we did not get proper instructions yet," said Htee Moo Klo, the KNU's joint secretary in Mon township in northwest Karen state.
The signing of a ceasefire has in some areas, particularly in northern Karen state, widened skepticism often voiced by KNU military and civilian local leaders about their central leadership, which they consider weak and under the influence of Thai authorities because they are situated across the border in Mae Sot.
One administrator of a Mutraw district village who asked to remain anonymous was adamant: "We district headmen regret that the leaders in Mae Sot did not consult the people [before sending a ceasefire delegation]. For the moment we go along with the orders, and we will also abide by a second stage if reasonable steps are taken. Otherwise we will do whatever we will have to do." This veiled threat from grassroots leaders of some kind of mutiny is not uncommon.
General Baw Kyaw, the 5th Brigade's commander (the KNU divides the state into seven administrative and military brigades), is known as a competent and honest but uncompromising administrator. He believes that the KNU is next after the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), currently engaged in a violent conflict along the Myanmar-China border, on a list of ethnic armed groups the Myanmar army aims to wipe out.
He recently took the bold move of autonomous action.In December 2011, the KNU, the Myanmar army and two regional energy companies, Thai Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) and Chinese Sinohydro Corporation, reached a deal on the US$1 billion, 1,200 megawatt dam ongoing project at Hatgyi on the Salween River in eastern Karen State. As part of the deal, the KNU pledged not to disturb the project's survey work and to allow the Myanmar army to move troops and build camps in the area.
It is not clear what the KNU got in exchange for those assurances and allowances. Early this month, however, Baw Kyaw flouted the terms of the deal and deployed his soldiers in the dam area, forcing the private companies to suspend their survey work and preventing Myanmar troops from deployment in the area.
Beyond divergences of interpretation, the ceasefire's main sticking point is deep mistrust between both sides, an ill-feeling fuelled by six decades of conflict and a series of past failed reconciliation efforts. Saw Htoo Sar, deputy commander of a company from the KNLA's 3rd Brigade, said that "the Burmese have always lied to us. There is no reason to trust them now more than before."
Bwe Wa, headman of Kay Pu village inhabited by more than 5,000 Karen in the 5th Brigade area, believes that the current relaxation of the conflict situation "will not last". "We have experience from the past, the ceasefire is a trick from the [Myanmar government]," he said. "It's not going to last. Despite the rapprochement between [President] Thein Sein and [opposition leader] Aung San Suu Kyi, the army still pulls the strings."
Baw Wa said the only way the Myanmar government could prove their "genuine goodwill" would be "to conclude a national ceasefire with all ethnic groups, withdraw their troops from ethnic areas and release all political prisoners".
More pragmatic Karen leaders believe that the lack of trust must be addressed before a lasting peace can be achieved. "Nobody trusts the Burmese but the Burmese don't trust us either, so we have to build this trust, give the Burmese the benefit of the doubt in order to install confidence amongst the people," said David Taw, a KNU executive member and member of the negotiating delegation. "This could take 10 years but we have to start as soon as possible."
The ceasefire's uneasy implementation has opened a split within the KNU's top leadership. On one side are skeptics led by KNU secretary general Naw Zipporah Sein and vice president Saw David Tharckabaw, while on the other are proponents of the deal led by KNLA commander in chief Gl Mutu Sae Po and KNU executive member David Taw.
Significantly, each group maintains the loyalty of certain brigade commanders. In a remarkable recent statement, Saw David Tharckabaw said: "The KNU delegation initialized a preliminary ceasefire agreement. That does not mean that there is [a] ceasefire on the ground, now." On the other side of the Karen divide, David Taw said: "Basically this group accuses us of having signed the ceasefire too quickly."
With these internal tensions, nobody dares to predict the next steps. Myanmar's Railways Minister, Aung Min, charged by the president to negotiate ceasefires with ethnic groups on the eastern border, met a group of KNU leaders, including Saw David Tharckabaw, in Bangkok on February 7. Those close to the situation say that the date for a meeting in Myanmar between both delegations should be decided soon.
"The priority is to move back the IDPs to their respected areas, open liaison offices, define conditions for movements of troops, start development work and a few other measures," said David Taw. (Underscoring the challenge of possible next steps, human rights organizations estimate there as many as 600,000 IDPs in eastern Myanmar, including areas of the Mon, Karen, Kayah and Shan states)
Despite widespread uncertainty and skepticism over the peace process, there is a general consensus that the situation in this northern region of Karen State began to improve as early as last year - long before the ceasefire was announced. In the area's so-called "black zone," a long stretch of ethnic territory along the eastern border where Myanmar soldiers have historically had free license to shoot-to-kill and which for decades has been the theater of the worst human rights abuses against civilian populations, the Myanmar army's activities have been substantially reduced.
"From 2007 to 2012, the Burmese army has cut down the number of its camps in the northern Karen State by 40% and troops activities have diminished," says a leading member of the Free Burma Rangers relief group who frequently travels in the area. Interpretations diverge about the reasons for the reduction in army operations. Some claim it's a direct consequence of the KNLA's constant attacks; others believe it is due to a redeployment of troops to the Kachin State, where fighting recently flared up after a ceasefire broke down. Very few seem to think that it's a deliberate and conciliatory move from the Myanmar government.
Life in the "brown zone," an area in the plains controlled by the Myanmar army but with important Karen underground activity and support, has also reportedly improved since 2011. A group of four village leaders (their names have been changed due to fears of government reprisals) from a relocation site in the "brown zone" recently walked a few hours across the mountain for a meeting in a KNLA camp. In doing so, they took a huge risk: according to section 17(1) of the Unlawful Associations Act they could be sentenced to seven years in prison.
"Definitely the situation has improved," says Saw Ler Gay, a village headman. "There are fewer Burmese patrols, less use of forced porters, the curfew has been reduced from 11pm to 3am instead of 6pm to 6am, now we are allowed to spend the night in our field hut, which makes the harvest easier. We don't know why the Burmese have modified their attitude."
Still, mistrust runs deep. Saw Wah Po, a Christian church leader from the same area, said: "We believe it's only a tactical move. The same group who has ruled us for years is still ruling the game. A strong sign of opening would be to get rid of this section 17(1) [of the Unlawful Associations Act]."
Old habits, it seems, will die hard. In October 2011, Myanmar soldiers shot dead Saw Maw Kyi Taung, a 43-year old father of four children who had climbed a tree to pick betel leaves at the Aung Saw Moe relocation site. The army gave his family 100,000 kyats (around US$130) as compensation for his killing. On December 24, 2011, Saw Koh Mya from Ku Ler Der village was shot and wounded by soldiers who then beat him to death before half-burying him along a trail.
News of such incidents have raised a high level of skepticism about the prospects for peace among the Karen population. So, too, has the apparent inability of President Thein Sein to stop the army from fighting the Kachin. "How can we believe him when the army does not even listen to him," says one KNU commander.
There are also doubts about the possible role of pro-democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi in the complex ethnic issue. Bwe Wa, the Kay Pu's village leader, summarizes a widely held opinion among his peers: "She cannot do much for now. The military released her to get political breathing space. They are using her."
To be sure, incidents and hiccups are unavoidable in any ceasefire process, especially after literally decades of conflict. But was the handshake on the Mu Htee road between old foes a fleeting flash of hope or a genuine sign of a brighter future for Karen State? There are isolated reasons for optimism: When the smiling Myanmar soldier released the Karen rebel's hand to return to the road, he said in departing: "Please remember my face so next time we meet again you won't shoot me."
Tony Cliff, a pseudonym, is a Bangkok-based freelance photojournalist. He accompanied the Free Burma Rangers relief group during the month of January in an expedition through the hills and jungles of northern Karen State. He may be reached at tonycliff7@gmail.com.
Note: The first photo in the essay was taken by the Free Burma Rangers. All of the subsequent photos belong to Tony Cliff.
Source: The uneasy birth of a ceasefire Tony Cliff | Asia Times Online | 17 Feb 2012
